Immigration and the economy dominate the election. The candidates’ policies follow.

The Economy

Middle-Out vs Trickle-Down ; Individual Rights vs Corporate Control

After 40 years of trickle-down economic policy which many believe has served only the wealthiest voters and failed the poorest, Harris focuses on 'middle out' economic policies supporting working-class voters. With a larger and stronger middle-class, more people can buy more goods, stimulating a stronger economy for everyone.

The Harris focus on strengthening the middle-class economy has implications for wealthy voters. Harris policies increase taxes for those making $600,000 to $2 million, $30 million, and $1 billion annually.

Trump focuses on building greater corporate wealth, including increasing legal power. The tradeoff is reduced consumer protections such as environmental precautions and governmental services that are no longer independent but rather driven by the party in power.

How will Harris pay for her policies? Can Trump pay for his?

Trump Increased Inflation: Tariffs. There is a direct corraeation between tariffs collected on foreign goods and inflation. When tariffs go up, the price paid for goods and services go up as companies try to cover the additional cost. Goldman Sachs economists estimate that every one percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate could raise core inflation by a tenth of a percentage point. Trump’s policies include a 10% to 20% increase in tariffs on most things except Chinese goods which would get a 60% tariff.

Trump Increases Inflation: Immigration. While mass deportation may sound good to some, it actually weakens the US economy. When businesses struggle to fill open positions, they are forced to raise wages to find workers and pass the cost on to consumers so goods and services go up. If 1.3 million workers, which is lower than the 10 to 20 million deportations Trump’s immigration policies would cause what economists call an “inflation shock”.

If 7.5 million workers were deported, inflation is estimated to go up a staggering 7.4%. Gross Domestic Product, a measure of the economy’s overall health, would go down 12 points. Merchandise would cost more and the dollar would be less powerful to buy things. CNN, September, 10, 2024. https://bit.ly/4eupzTu

Trump Increases The Deficit: “The national debt is on an unsustainable path: Federal debt relative to gross domestic product is on track to surpass its post-World War II record in 2027.

Trump’s proposals would add at least $4.5 trillion to the deficit over the next decade. In contrast, Harris could actually achieve some deficit reduction.”

The Washington Post, September 7,2024. https://bit.ly/3BnbDw9

Harris

Immigration

“Trump’s plans would add $4.5 trillion to the deficit; the Vice President’s are more fiscally responsible.”

– The Washington Post citing Yale University & The Committee for a Responsible Budget (a bipartisan nonprofit public policy organization, www.crfb.org)

https://wapo.st/47zFUnw

Side-By-Side Comparison

Harris

Harris' policies focus on reducing financial stress for middle and lower-income families to restore economic stability​.

  • Banning grocery chains from artificially increasing prices during times of crisis or emergency (price gauging).

  • Capping prescription drug costs

  • Expanding the child tax credit.

  • Raising the federal minimum wage from $7.25/hour to $15/hour

  • Expand student debt relief to reduce consumer burden

Tax Policy

Corporate

“So, which presidential nominee has the better economic agenda to get Americans back on track? According to nearly 40 economists from America's top schools surveyed by the Financial Times and the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, it's Harris instead of former President Donald Trump

– Newsweek, Sept 14, 2024 bit.ly/3XTw5xN

Kamala Harris has proposed increasing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% as a key part of her plan to fund her economic programs. This increase is intended to generate significant revenue to support social initiatives and reduce income inequality”

– The Financial Times, Sept 2, 2024. https://bit.ly/3zEMTPz

Individual

  • Increase corporate minimum tax from 15% to 21%

  • Provide new federal funding to spur housing construction

  • Make permanent tax rates to those earning more than $600,000

  • Impose a wealth tax of 25% on incomes higher than $100 million.

  • Make permanent the Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance tax subsidies

  •  Eliminate income taxes on tips and Social Security benefits

  • Reduce estate and gift tax exemptions to pre-2018 levels

  • Decrease standard deductions to pre-2018 levels

  • Raise top capital gains tax rate from 22.4% to 33%

  • Make permanent the $3,600 child tax credit

  • Provide tax credits for newborns

  • Provide tax credits for first-time homebuyers

  • Raise top corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%.

  • Increase corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT) to 21% from 15%.

  • Increase tax on stock buybacks to 4% from 1%.

Trump's policies favor corporations over consumers.

  • Roll back Consumer Financial Protection Bureau activities.

  • Cut regulations substantially across the board.

  • Categorize civil workers as political appointees rather than employees.

  • Reduce barriers and long approval times for mergers/acquisitions

  • Eliminate regulations targeting energy-inefficient appliances and products.

Trump

Individual

  • Eliminate income taxes on tips and Social Security benefits.

  • Permanently extend tax rates established in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

  • Allow expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance tax subsidies to lapse.

  • Reduce corporate tax rate to 15%-20% from 21%.

  • Permanently extend quicker capital expenditure depreciation rules enacted in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Corporate

While often overlooked, American corporations depend on immigrants to fill jobs that make their businesses run. Here are the companies that rely on immigrants.

1. Agriculture

  • Del Monte Foods

  • Driscoll’s

  • Dole Food Company

  • Tyson Foods

  • Perdue Farms

These companies rely heavily on immigrant labor, especially through the H-2A visa program, for roles in farming, harvesting, processing, and packaging produce and poultry.

2. Construction

  • Bechtel

  • Turner Construction

  • Fluor Corporation

  • Jacobs Engineering

  • Kiewit Corporation

Construction companies often hire immigrants for labor-intensive roles such as general laborers, masons, carpenters, electricians, and welders. Many of these roles may be filled by immigrants on temporary work visas.

3. Hospitality and Food Service

  • Marriott International

  • Hilton Worldwide

  • McDonald’s

  • Starbucks

  • Hyatt Hotels

Immigrants are commonly employed in hospitality roles, such as housekeeping, maintenance, kitchen staff, and servers. Large hotel chains, restaurant franchises, and catering companies offer these positions, sometimes through H-2B visa programs for seasonal or temporary work.

4. Manufacturing

  • Smithfield Foods

  • JBS USA

  • Tyson Foods

  • Cargill

  • Hormel Foods

Food processing and manufacturing plants hire many immigrants for roles in meatpacking, assembly lines, quality control, and packaging.

5. Landscaping and Grounds Maintenance

  • BrightView

  • TruGreen

  • The Davey Tree Expert Company

  • ValleyCrest Companies

  • Bartlett Tree Experts

These companies often use H-2B visas to hire immigrant workers for seasonal roles in landscaping, groundskeeping, tree trimming, and general outdoor labor.

6. Warehousing and Logistics

  • Amazon

  • UPS

  • FedEx

  • Walmart Distribution Centers

  • Target Distribution Centers

Immigrant workers are widely employed in roles like warehouse associates, package handlers, forklift operators, and stockers, especially in major e-commerce and logistics companies.

7. Cleaning and Janitorial Services

  • ABM Industries

  • Jani-King

  • ServiceMaster Clean

  • ISS Facility Services

  • Sodexo

Many cleaning companies employ immigrants in janitorial roles, both in commercial and residential settings. These jobs often require manual labor and may provide entry-level employment for new immigrants.

8. Food and Beverage Processing

  • Nestlé USA

  • PepsiCo

  • Kellogg's

  • Anheuser-Busch

  • ConAgra Foods

Immigrants are hired for factory roles in food processing, packaging, and quality control in large food and beverage companies.

9. Textile and Apparel Manufacturing

  • VF Corporation

  • Hanesbrands

  • Fruit of the Loom

  • Levi Strauss & Co.

These companies hire immigrants for manufacturing and assembly roles in textile and garment production, though many of these jobs have moved overseas, some still remain in the U.S.

10. Fishing and Seafood Processing

  • Trident Seafoods

  • Pacific Seafood

  • Icicle Seafoods

  • Ocean Beauty Seafoods

Seafood processing plants, especially in states like Alaska, employ many immigrant workers for seasonal and year-round jobs in fish processing, packing, and shipping.

These industries are known for hiring immigrant workers in manual labor roles, and some offer temporary or seasonal visa sponsorship (H-2A, H-2B) for foreign workers.

The total number of immigrants brought to the U.S. for manual labor varies annually based on economic demand, visa availability, and labor market conditions. The primary visa categories for manual labor are the H-2A (agricultural workers) and H-2B (non-agricultural seasonal workers), along with other categories for specific industries.

Here is a breakdown of the numbers based on recent years:

1. H-2A Visa (Agricultural Workers)

  • The H-2A program is for temporary agricultural workers, and the number of visas issued has been steadily increasing. In fiscal year 2023, the U.S. issued around 370,000 H-2A visas, reflecting the growing demand for agricultural labor.

2. H-2B Visa (Non-Agricultural Workers)

  • The H-2B program covers non-agricultural jobs, such as landscaping, hospitality, construction, and other seasonal industries. The cap on H-2B visas is 66,000 per fiscal year, but Congress has at times allowed an increase beyond the cap through supplemental visas, particularly during peak labor shortages. For example, in FY 2023, an additional 65,000 visas were allowed, bringing the total number of H-2B visas to around 131,000 for that year.

3. Unauthorized and Other Immigrant Labor

  • In addition to the workers brought in under official programs, there is a significant number of undocumented immigrants who work in manual labor industries, particularly in agriculture, construction, and food processing. It is estimated that approximately 7-8 million undocumented immigrants are working in the U.S., with a substantial proportion engaged in manual labor.

4. Permanent Residents and Other Visa Categories

  • Some immigrants who obtain green cards (permanent residency) or other work visas (such as family-sponsored immigration) may also end up working in manual labor roles, though these numbers are harder to quantify specifically for manual labor.

Approximate Total:

  • H-2A Visas (Agricultural): 370,000 annually

  • H-2B Visas (Non-Agricultural): 131,000 annually (with supplemental visas)

  • Undocumented Immigrant Workers in Manual Labor: Estimated at 7-8 million in various industries.

While the number of workers officially brought to the U.S. through visa programs totals a few hundred thousand annually, the broader workforce of immigrants engaged in manual labor, including undocumented immigrants, is estimated to be in the millions.

The numbers provided for immigrants brought to the U.S. for manual labor are based on publicly available data from several key sources:

Immigration is a multifaceted problem that won’t be fixed by one solution. Until recently, immigration was addressed in a bipartisan, collaborative, way. Now, the inability of politicians to come together to create a comprehensive solution has become a problem larger than immigration itself. This section is under development.

All policy reporting comes from American Centuries Investments, CNN, Goldman Sacks, and The Washington Post. American Centuries Investments headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri. Founded in 1958, American Century Investments is a privately held global asset management firm emphasizing sustainable investing. This material has been prepared for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal or tax advice. americancentury.com/insights/election